STOP THE WAR ON IRAQ! BRING OUR TROOPS HOME NOW!
ALL OUT JANUARY 20TH, 5:00 P.M., CIVIC CENTER, S.F.
On Inauguration Day, our voice must be louder than the governmental
pomp and circumstance that will welcome Bush to four more years
of murder and mayhem. The voice of all those opposed to the war
must drown out the lies force fed to us by the corporate-controlled
media.
The people of San Francisco voted to Bring the Troops Home Now.
We demand that the military cease and desist its recruitment at high
schools, college campuses and in our poor neighborhoods. Our children
need a good education, jobs, housing and healthcare not war.
Parents are encouraged to sign the "Right to Nondisclosure of
Student Directory Information Form" (See a sample--item 1A below)
available at their child's high school. This allows parents to prohibit
the military from contacting their child and allows the school to hold
back all contact information they have for your child from the military.
All school administrators should send these forms out to all families
of children in the San Francisco Unified School District.
We demand all military recruitment offices in San Francisco be closed
immediately.
We encourage others across the State of California and the country
to sponsor similar antiwar initiatives in their own towns and cities.
For more information about how to put an antiwar initiative on the ballot
go to: www.bringourtroopshomenow.org
The American people will fill the streets again, and again, until all
our troops are brought home!
The bigger the turn out the louder our voice will be!
SAY NO TO FOUR MORE YEARS OF WAR!
MAKE YOUR PROTEST VISIBLE! BRING SIGNS AND NOISE MAKERS.
PUT SIGNS IN YOUR WINDOWS AND ON YOUR CARS!
SPREAD THE WORD!
ALL OUT JAN. 20TH! BRING OUR TROOPS HOME NOW!
CIVIC CENTER, 5:00 P.M., SAN FRANCISCO
BAY AREA UNITED AGAINST WAR
---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*
San Francisco's Prop N calling on the US Gov to
Bring Our Troops Home from Iraq won by over 63%.
To find out how you can pass a similar proposition in
your town go to:
www.bringourtroopshomenow.org
---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*
Bay Area United Against War Presents
a film screening of:
"WMD: Weapons of Mass Deception"
Meet film director Danny Schechter "The News Dissector."
Danny will be available for a question and answer period
right after the movie.
Saturday, Dec. 11th, 2004
(Check the newspaper for showtime and ticket price.)
Embarcadero Center Cinema
One Embarcadero Center, Promenade Level
San Francisco, CA 94111
(415) 267-4893
" 'WMD' paints a meticulous and damning portrait of the media's
coverage of the Iraq war. In sobering detail, Danny Schechter shows
us how the TV networks now prefer the role of cheerleader, to that
of objective journalist," says Mike Nisholson of austinnforkerry.org.
"Schechter tackles his subject like a cross between Errol Morris
and a Dashiell Hammet detective, following close on the tail of
big media reporters as they in turn track the march toward war,
embed themselves in the military industrial complex and then
get out when the fighting gets tough and leave the cleanup work
to stringers, " writes Shandon Fowler of film's Hamptons
International Film Festival appearance, Oct. 20-24.
To learn more about the film visit:
www.wmdthefilm.com
www.bauaw.org
(Distributed by Cinema Libre Studio, www.cinemalibrestudio.com)
---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*
1) U.S. Court Tosses Campus Recruiting Rule
PHILADELPHIA, Nov. 30 (UPI)
http://washingtontimes.com/upi-breaking/20041130-090609-3619r.htm
2) Red Cross: Guantanamo Tactics 'Tantamount to Torture'
WASHINGTON (Reuters)
Tue Nov 30, 2004 06:49 AM ET
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=6952289&src=eD
ialog/GetContent§ion=news
3) Tuesday, Nov. 30, 7pm
Weekly ANSWER Activist Meeting
2489 Mission St. Room 28 at 21st St., San Francisco
4) What Next for the Bay Area Labor Antiwar Movement?
From: Labor Committee for Peace & Justice
[mailto:labor-for-peace-and-justice@igc.org]
5) Car Bomb Kills Seven, Wounds 20 in Iraq
By Sabah al-Bazee
BAIJI, Iraq (Reuters)
Tue Nov 30, 2004 08:27 AM ET
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=6953531&src=eD
ialog/GetContent§ion=news
6) Low Crime Rate in Fallujah
** Dahr Jamail's Iraq Dispatches **
** http://dahrjamailiraq.com - link of the week at
MichaelMoore.com **
November 30, 2004
7) Dark Clouds Ahead for World Economy - but Happy
Christmas Everyone!
By Michael Roberts
http://www.marxist.com/Economy/happy_christmas.htm
8) Taking Aim Bulletin - Tuesday, November 30, 2004
"Taking Aim"
---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*
1) U.S. Court Tosses Campus Recruiting Rule
PHILADELPHIA, Nov. 30 (UPI)
http://washingtontimes.com/upi-breaking/20041130-090609-3619r.htm
PHILADELPHIA, Nov. 30 (UPI) -- A federal appeals panel in
Philadelphia has overturned a law requiring universities to
give access to military recruiters or lose federal funds.
The case, which had been described as pitting academic
freedom against the power of federal purse strings, let a divided
federal appeals panel rule in favor of invalidating the 10-year-
old law forcing U.S. colleges and universities to give campus
access to military recruiters or forfeit federal funding.
The Philadelphia Inquirer said Tuesday the 2-1 decision by
a panel of the U.S. 3rd Circuit Court of Appeals comes in
a suit by New Jersey law professors and students and was
the first to hold that the law violated universities' free-speech
rights under the First Amendment.
Since 2003, when Congress began toughening the rule --
called the Solomon Amendment after its chief sponsor,
former N.Y. GOP Rep. Gerald Solomon -- by expanding
the types of federal funding at stake, four federal suits
have challenged its constitutionality.
U.S. Justice Department spokesman Charles Miller said lawyers
were reviewing the opinion but had not decided whether to
appeal. Many legal experts, however, say they believe an
appeal is certain.
Copyright (c) 2001-2004 United Press International
---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*
2) Red Cross: Guantanamo Tactics 'Tantamount to Torture'
WASHINGTON (Reuters)
Tue Nov 30, 2004 06:49 AM ET
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=6952289&src=eD
ialog/GetContent§ion=news
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The International Committee of the
Red Cross (ICRC) has accused the U.S. military of using tactics
"tantamount to torture" on prisoners at the U.S. Navy base in
Guantanamo Bay, The New York Times reported on Tuesday.
An ICRC inspection team that spent most of June at
Guantanamo Bay reported the use of psychological and sometimes
physical coercion on the prisoners, the newspaper said.
It said it had recently obtained a memorandum that quoted
the report in detail and listed its major findings.
In Geneva, the ICRC said it would neither confirm nor deny
the New York Times report -- in which allegations of treatment
tantamount to torture go further than what the neutral
intermediary has publicly stated before about inmates held at
Guantanamo.
But, in a statement, the Geneva-based ICRC said it remained
concerned that "significant problems regarding conditions and
treatment at Guantanamo Bay have not yet been adequately
addressed," and it was pursuing talks with U.S. authorities.
More than 500 people are being held at the U.S. base in
Cuba, detained during the 2001 U.S. war to oust al Qaeda and
the ruling Taliban from Afghanistan and in other operations in
the U.S. war against terror. The ICRC began visits in early
2002.
The Times said the U.S. government and military officials
received the ICRC report in July and rejected its findings.
Asked by the Times about the report, a Pentagon spokesman
said in a statement: "The United States operates a safe, humane
and professional detention operation at Guantanamo that is
providing valuable information in the war on terrorism."
The Times said the Red Cross investigators had found a
system devised to break the will of prisoners through
"humiliating acts, solitary confinement, temperature extremes,
use of forced positions."
"The construction of such a system, whose stated purpose is
the production of intelligence, cannot be considered other than
an intentional system of cruel, unusual and degrading treatment
and a form of torture," the Times quoted the report as saying.
Beatrice Megevand-Roggo, the committee's delegate-general
for Europe and the Americas, told the newspaper the ICRC could
not comment on the report submitted to the U.S. government.
The ICRC has agreed to keep its findings confidential.
Human rights groups and lawyers have criticized the United
States for holding prisoners at the base indefinitely and most
without charges or legal representation.
The U.S. government has taken the position that the
detainees are "enemy combatants" and not entitled to the
protections normally given to prisoners of war.
It has begun a process of holding individual trials, called
tribunals, for each prisoner to determine their status.
(Additional reporting by Stephanie Nebehay in Geneva)
(c) Copyright Reuters 2004
---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*
3) Tuesday, Nov. 30, 7pm
Weekly ANSWER Activist Meeting
2489 Mission St. Room 28 at 21st St., San Francisco
Join us for a political update and analysis of the crisis in the
Ukraine, a reportback from ANSWER organizersÂ’ speaking tour
in Argentina, and an update on the Local 2 Hotel Workers
Lockout. Also, a report on the National ANSWER Action Plan.
Get involved! Help mobilize for the January 20 Counter-
Inaugural Demostration in San Francisco.
Call 415-821-6545 for more information.
To subscribe to the list, send a message to:
activist-subscribe@actionsf.org
---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*
4) What Next for the Bay Area Labor Antiwar Movement?
From: Labor Committee for Peace & Justice
[mailto:labor-for-peace-and-justice@igc.org]
-----Original Message-----
Sent: Monday, November 29, 2004 7:30 PM
To: Labor4Justice@topica.com
Subject: What Next for the Bay Area Labor Antiwar Movement?
Importance: High
Please distribute to coworkers, fellow union members and
other labor antiwar activists.
Download a flyer at
http://uslaboragainstwar.org/downloads/What%20Next.AssemblyReportback.121504
What Next for Labor's Antiwar Movement?
You are invited and encouraged to attend a special forum on
the future of the labor antiwar movement in the Bay Area and U.S.
Delegates to the US Labor Against War National Leadership
Assembly in Chicago, December 4-5 will report on the
deliberations and decisions of that Assembly. Their
reports will be followed by discussion.
JOIN US!
WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 15TH
7:00-9:00 p.m.
at SEIU Local 250
560 Thomas L Berkley Way (20th St.), Oakland
Betw. Telegraph & San Pablo
19th Street BART Stop
A $5.00 donation is requested but no one will be turned away.
Please encourage officers, members and staff of your
union to attend.
This event is cosponsored by
the Bay Area Labor Committee for Peace & Justice
U.S. Labor Against the War and
the Alameda, Contra Costa and San Francisco Labor Councils
Labor Committee for Peace & Justice
P.O. Box 14156, Berkeley CA 94702-5156
labor-for-peace-and-justice@igc.org
---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*
5) Car Bomb Kills Seven, Wounds 20 in Iraq
By Sabah al-Bazee
BAIJI, Iraq (Reuters)
Tue Nov 30, 2004 08:27 AM ET
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=6953531&src=eD
ialog/GetContent§ion=news
BAIJI, Iraq (Reuters) - A car bomb in a crowded market
north of Baghdad killed at least seven civilians and wounded 18
Tuesday as a U.S. military patrol passed by.
As well as daily attacks on Iraqi security forces and civilians,
November has been one of the deadliest months for U.S.
troops, with 134 killed. The U.S. military expects
violence to escalate before elections scheduled for Jan. 30.
The bomb went off in a busy staging area in the
oil-refining town of Baiji, 180 km (112 miles) north of
Baghdad, as a U.S. military patrol was passing. The blast
destroyed market stalls and caused panic among scores of
shoppers, witnesses said.
A doctor at Baiji hospital, Samir Mehdi, said he had
received seven dead civilians from the blast and
18 wounded. A U.S. military spokesman said two U.S.
soldiers were wounded.
In a separate attack in the town, an insurgent fired a
rocket-propelled grenade at a U.S. tank, wounding a U.S.
soldier and damaging the tank, the U.S. spokesman said.
And in Baghdad, a car bomb exploded near a U.S. convoy
on the road to the airport, destroying a vehicle, the
military said.
Baiji, site of a major oil refinery, has seen a surge in
violence over the past three weeks, since U.S. forces launched
their offensive on the rebel town of Falluja.
That assault sparked guerrilla attacks across a swathe of
Sunni Muslim regions of the country including towns such as
Samarra, Tikrit, Baquba and Mosul, as well as Baiji.
The U.S. military says it expects more attacks in the build
up to elections due on Jan. 30 and has said it will do all it
can before then to quell the insurgency and put Iraqi forces in
charge of security.
Leading Sunni Arab political parties want the elections
postponed by up to six months, saying their supporters will not
be able to vote freely due to the violence in Sunni areas.
ELECTION DELAY?
Sunni Arabs make up only around 20 percent of Iraq's
population but dominated the ruling elite during the rule of
Saddam Hussein. Several Sunni parties say they will boycott the
elections unless the government agrees to postpone them.
But parties representing Iraq's 60-percent Shi'ite Muslim
majority, oppressed under Saddam, are demanding polls go ahead
on time to cement their political dominance in the new Iraq.
Backed by Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, Iraq's most revered
religious leader, Shi'ite parties have refused to accept any
delay, saying that would mean giving in to guerrilla violence.
Iraq's two main Kurdish political parties initially signed
a petition calling for a delay in the vote, but have since said
they would be happy for the election to go ahead as scheduled.
As part of efforts to generate enthusiasm for the
elections, Prime Minister Iyad Allawi said Tuesday he would
travel to Jordan this week for talks with Iraqi exiles. The
government dismissed reports that exiles with links to the
insurgency would be present at the talks.
STEPPED UP ATTACKS
Insurgents determined to disrupt the elections, drive out
U.S.-led soldiers and topple the American-backed government
have repeatedly attacked U.S. forces, Iraqi police and soldiers.
Monday, a suicide car bomber plowed into policemen waiting
to collect their salaries at a police station west of Ramadi,
killing 12 people and wounding at least 10. North of Baghdad, a
U.S. soldier was killed in a roadside bomb blast.
At least 981 U.S. soldiers have been killed in action in
Iraq since last year's invasion. More than 9,000 have been
wounded, 5,000 of them seriously, according to Pentagon data.
The U.S. military has said it will move into rebel-held
areas by the end of the year to pacify them before elections.
Earlier this month, they crushed insurgent forces in Falluja
and may have to do the same in other rebel towns such as
Ramadi.
U.S. Marines, British troops and Iraqi forces have also
launched an operation to hunt down insurgents and criminals in
a cluster of lawless towns on the Euphrates just south of
Baghdad.
Insurgents have been largely driven out of Falluja but they
have regrouped elsewhere, particularly in Iraq's third largest
city, Mosul, 390 km (240 miles) north of Baghdad.
The U.S. military says Jordanian guerrilla leader and al
Qaeda ally Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, its top foe in Iraq, may have
moved to Mosul ahead of the Falluja offensive.
More than 50 bodies have been found there since Nov. 15,
and Zarqawi's Al Qaeda Organization of Holy War in Iraq has
claimed responsibility for killing dozens of soldiers and
policemen.
In northern Iraq near the border with Turkey, up to 40
people drowned when an overcrowded barge capsized on a swollen
river, families of the victims said. The flat barge boat was
overturned by a surge of water on the Tigris tributary.
(c) Copyright Reuters 2004.
---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*
6) Low Crime Rate in Fallujah
** Dahr Jamail's Iraq Dispatches **
** http://dahrjamailiraq.com - link of the week at
MichaelMoore.com **
November 30, 2004
Abut Talat and I, snarled in the horrendous daily traffic of Baghdad,
decide to laugh about it. "Maybe we should consider a camel," he
ponders, "That way we don't have to feed it benzene!" We both start
laughing while our car hasn't moved for several minutes.
An Iraqi Police truck races by on the wrong side of the road, sirens
blaring...to do what?
"Plus, a camel is better than a horse because it has 6 stomachs," he
adds, starting to sound serious about this, "That way it can go for even
longer!" I have tears now from laughing so hard, while Abu Talat holds
his hands up, signaling for me to wait, "Or even better, each car should
have two donkeys to tow it, so we never need benzene again!"
We both lurch forward in our seats with laughter as I bang my hands on
the dash board. It's either laugh or cry in Iraq. Without our joking, we
would have lost it a long time ago.
While the humanitarian crisis facing families who remain trapped inside
Fallujah grinds on, US-backed interim prime minister Ayad Allawi
announced yesterday that the crime rate in Fallujah was down after the
US siege of the city. Remember that not long ago, Allawi also announced
that every person killed in Fallujah was a fighter, ie-not one civilian
was killed.
As heavy traffic of Apache helicopters roars incessantly over Baghdad,
fierce clashes continue against the occupation forces while the interim
prime minister is in Jordan, attempting to persuade Iraqis living there
to participate in the upcoming elections.
With at least 134 US soldiers killed in Iraq this month so far, yet
another huge car bomb detonated into a military convoy on the dreaded
airport road. While witnesses reported seeing several bodies lying on
the ground at the scene, the military has yet to announce any casualty
counts. Another car bomb in Beji detonated near a US patrol, killing 4
Iraqis and wounding at least 19, including 2 US soldiers.
Allawi continues to insist that violence in Iraq is decreasing since the
siege of Fallujah.
After picking up some friends, we are snarled in more horrendous traffic
near the airport road on our way to another refugee camp. Razor wire
stretches across the road as helicopters and military hardware are
clustered just up the road. While the military cut most of the trees
along the road to prevent attacks, car bombs are something they can't stop.
Meanwhile, the military refused to allow yet another aid convoy into
Fallujah. They were turned back because the military personnel told them
the Ministry of Health would be allowed to send a relief convoy in "8 or
9 days."
There are at least 150 families trapped within the city, and the
military refuses to let any of them out. While a few ambulances were
allowed into one section of the city a few days ago, there are at least
three main neighborhoods that the military is keeping a tight lid on.
Refugees continue to report the use of napalm and phosphorous weapons-of
seeing dead bodies with no bullet holes in them, just scorched patches
of skin.
More refugees at the Amiryah bomb shelter camp in Baghdad are telling
the same horror stories. A man who fled the city says, "Fallujah is in a
disaster!" He holds his hands out and pleads, "We call on all NGO's and
aid organizations to help Fallujans! We just want to return to our land;
we know our homes are destroyed, but we'd rather sleep in tents in our
own city."
The scene at the nearby Melouki Mosque is chaos. Crowds of men stand
outside gates holding their food ration papers in the air to prove they
are from Fallujah in order to receive small heaters, stoves, foodstuffs
and blankets. Thankfully, an international NGO managed to donate funds
to purchase much of these desperately needed supplies for refugees.
Medicines
have also been purchased with the donations for Iraqi doctors to
dispense to the refugees.
Sheikh Hussein who is in charge of the relief effort at the mosque is
struggling to cope with the crisis.
We stand in a small courtyard behind the mosque away from the crowds
talking. I notice a white military surveillance balloon nearby, as
helicopters rumble overhead.
"Some people not even from Fallujah are so desperate they are coming
here to get supplies and pretending to be refugees," he tells us.
Women and children are crying outside the gates as men grapple for the
small heaters and stoves.
I am reminded of what occurred in Lidice, Czechoslovakia during World
War II. Similar to what the US military has done to Fallujah, the German
Nazis leveled Lidice as payback collective punishment for the death of a
high ranking member of the German security administration, Reinhard
Heydrich, who was killed by Czech patriots in 1942.
Last March, four mercenaries were brutally killed in Fallujah, which led
to the first US siege of the city in April as collective payback for the
attack. Mostly for political reasons that siege was ceased, which set
the stage for the recent attack on the city.
Similarly, Heydrich was assassinated by Czech patriots who were accused
of being aided by the village of Lidice. Thus, Hitler ordered the
village to be erased, and all men in the city over the age of 16 were
killed.
Musar, a woman at the mosque standing nearby is weeping. "My 5 cousins
and uncle are trapped there," she cries, "They are not fighters but the
Americans won't let them out. And now the soldiers are coming to our
refugee camp and detaining people!"
Musar begins to plead with us, "They took all the doctors out of the
hospitals. My brother is a doctor there and they made him leave his
work." She stops because she is sobbing, then continues, "We have
nothing! You must help us. I need my cousins and my uncle! Where are
they? I just want to see them. None of them are fighters."
(c)2004 Dahr Jamail.
All images and text are protected by United States and international
copyright law. If you would like to reprint Dahr's Dispatches on the
web, you need to include this copyright notice and a prominent
link to the DahrJamailIraq.com website. Any other use of images
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another website, copying and printing requires the permission
of Dahr Jamail. Of course, feel free to forward Dahr's dispatches
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---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*
7) Dark Clouds Ahead for World Economy - but Happy
Christmas Everyone!
By Michael Roberts
http://www.marxist.com/Economy/happy_christmas.htm
As we approach Christmas yet again, the decorations, jingles,
lights and bunting appear ever earlier on the streets of America,
Europe and much of Asia. The retailers tell the media that it is
going to be a bumper season for sales and optimism always reigns
in the financial world, particularly the stock market.
Indeed, since the lows of the summer, the world's stock markets
have entered yet another rally in prices. They remain well below
the peaks reached at the end of the great dot-com bubble. Then
the Dow, the price index of the top 30 companies in the US, reached
11,500. In the subsequent slump through to mid-2002, the index
fell back to 7,500. A series of rallies and slips (snakes and ladders-
style) since then have taken the index back to 10,500. That's
a sizeable gain for those speculators who bought at the bottom
in 2002. But, just as in the casino or the lottery, very few did. Most
punters, and that includes the pension and retirement accounts of
the millions of workers in the US and the UK, are still nursing losses
and can expect a meagre return on their hard-earned money.
But now all is sunshine. President Bush has been re-elected with
the promise to maintain the tax cuts for the rich and for the big
corporations. He is even hinting at extending those cuts and
introducing legislation to hand over the social security budget
to private companies to run. That would be a bonanza for the
financial sector (and of course disaster for the recipients of
pensions and benefits in the future).
The US economy seems to have recovered from its 'soft patch'
when it slowed down in the summer. Economic growth is
tripping along at 3-4% a year. Jobs are coming back.
Households seem to be spending still and house prices
are holding up - at least so far.
But here is the rub. The whole boom seen since the very
mild recession of 2001 has been based on cheap money
pumped in by the Federal Reserve Bank and for that matter
the Bank of England and the European Central Bank. Households
in America and the UK have borrowed that money, spent some
of it and speculated the rest on buying homes. The property
market dominates the discussion of the middle classes at their
dinner tables and even concerns the many layers of the working
class as they see house prices rocket beyond their means.
As a result household debt has reached astronomical proportions,
well over 100% of annual household income after tax in the US,
the UK and many other countries. So far, the cost of financing this
debt has been manageable for most. With interest rates very low,
mortgage payments have been no higher than 20-25% of most
people's available income. But now interest rates are on the rise.
The Bank of England drove up interest rates sharply during 2004
and now the Federal Reserve has started to hike rates from all-
time low levels.
And these are just some signs that the great housing boom of
the 1990s and early 2000s is coming to an end - perhaps with
a bang rather than a whimper. All the talk is of a fall in house
prices in most of Britain in the last few months. In Australia,
there has already been a 15% fall. The US is still reasonably
buoyant but in the hot spots of California, Las Vegas and
Florida, prices are cooling off. Significantly, mortgage
borrowing has fallen away.
And that is the first danger for the growth of the US
economy. Americans have spent heavily in the shops by
borrowing. For most Americans take-home pay has not
expanded in the last few years and for many it has fallen.
The main reason is the huge rise in benefit contributions
to pay for medical care, education and transport costs.
If house prices now start to fall, then expect Americans,
Brits and even Europeans to cut back on their spending in
a big way. That spells slowdown and even recession. Already,
there are muted mumblings that Christmas is going to be
tough for the retailers in the high streets and malls.
There is nothing coming from the big corporations that will
keep the US economy rolling. The big companies in Europe,
Japan and the US have dramatically improved their profit
levels since they bottomed back in 2001. In the US, profit
margins are nearly back to the levels of the height of hi-tech
boom in 1997. But they have done this not by investment in
new technology or through innovative marketing etc. It is
almost all the result of huge job cuts. President Bush is the
first US president since Herbert Hoover in the 1930s to serve
a term of office where there were less people working at the
end of his four years than there were when it began. American
workers have paid for the boom in profits by lower benefits,
wage cuts and job losses.
Despite huge tax incentives, job cuts and easy credit, US
corporations have not used their massive profits to invest
productively. Most of the profit has gone to extravagant
salary packages for the top bosses, rising dividend payments
to the shareholders and even buy backs of shares in the market.
Net investment after money spent on replacing old plants and
equipment is at an all-time low! Only investment in arms,
missiles and 'security' is rising.
The great productivity boom of the 1990s in the US was the
result of huge investment in new technology. Indeed, there
was massive over-investment, a chronic fault in a capitalist
system where there is no planning, that finally led to the bust
in 2000. After that productivity growth was sustained only by
cutting the jobs of the workforce. But now productivity growth
is slowing fast. Whereas last year, productivity per worker per
hour was rising at over 5%, now it is creeping along at under
2% and will slow even further.
That suggests the US cannot maintain its 3-4% growth rate
much longer. And there is another dark cloud ahead - the
dollar. US prosperity has been based on borrowing: borrowing
to buy houses and also borrowing from abroad to pay for
cheap imports from China and Asia. Most of the consumer
gadgets, clothes and appliances bought this Christmas and
most of the cars sold on the extremely easy credit terms are
imported from overseas. America increasingly makes less,
borrows more and buys from abroad. The US has been able
to get away with this because the dollar has been supreme,
the currency for world trade and savings. Asian exporters
have recycled their dollars back into investments in US stocks
and shares or bonds or even to buy US companies.
That process has been going on for over a decade. Now the
US owes over 25% of annual income in debt abroad. But the
inevitable demise is fast approaching. The dollar has started
to slide. The slide began back in 2002 and then things seemed
to stabilise this year. But now the run on the dollar has resumed.
Foreign investors are asking themselves why they should buy all
these US shares and bonds if their value is going to slip because
the value of the dollar does. It is self-enforcing. Once confidence
in the dollar goes, all will fall down.
If the US slows, there will be little help from Europe or Japan to
take up the slack. Germany is hardly growing at all. The economy
is still shedding jobs, shop sales are terrible and there is growing
gloom at the failure of the government to turn the economy around.
And now the euro currency is strengthening so much that it threatens
to hit severely the export sales of European companies. Japan appeared
to have been making an economic recovery in the last year. But since
its great financial and housing bubble burst back in 1989, there have
been several false dawns for the economy. It stayed stagnant
throughout the 1990s and the current recovery is now showing
signs of exhaustion. Industrial production is down, prices in the
shops are still falling and house prices remain dormant. Exports
to China are booming, as the only saving grace.
And here is the next danger for the world economy. Outside of
the US, China has been the main support for world growth and
demand for commodities and equipment in this decade. The
economy has been racing along at over 10% a year. With a no-
holds-barred-approach by the bureaucracy, capitalist businesses
have been allowed to expand, without environmental control,
paying very low wages and providing terrible working conditions -
just as in the days of the industrial revolution of the early 19th
century Britain.
This capitalist expansion within the confines of an authoritarian
Stalinist regime and under-invested ageing state sector has created
huge distortions in the economy. Manufacturing trade booms and
China sells huge amounts abroad. Corruption, inequality and, above
all, unplanned over-investment have rocketed to new heights.
Now the great boom seems to be heading for a bust. Take car sales
for example. Last year car sales were rising 100%. Now they are
falling by 3%. There are now 600,000 unsold cars and manufacturers
with new plants and workers are getting worried. The same thing is
happening in the new gadget industries. There are 315 million mobile
phone users in China! That provides sales of about 90 million units
year, up 50% from 2003. This is already reaching the point of
saturation. Unsold mobile phones have already reached 60 million,
or nearly two thirds of yearly sales. Then there is housing. Property
speculation has been unprecedented. Property investment is now
50% of annual output!
This great investment boom is heading for a classic capitalist
bust. Sure, because China still has 60% of its investment in
state hands, the impact can still be controlled. But it will still
mean a sizeable slowdown in the economy in 2005.
And China is no longer unimportant in the world economy. If
you exclude the effect of currency exchange, then China's
economy is now 60% of the size of the US, or the second largest
in the world. Between 1990 and now, it contributed 28% of world
growth compared to just 19% from the US! And that figure was
probably closer to 50% since 2000.
To sum up, the US is probably heading for a slowdown. The UK
will follow the US, as always. Europe is already expanding weakly.
Japan's recovery could stall again, particularly if China slows. And
that great manufacturing powerhouse of the globe could well be
heading for a capitalist bust.
All this suggests that global capitalist slump is not far away.
And with productivity growth slowing and oil prices still high,
inflation may return at the same time to deliver the worst of all
possible capitalist worlds - stagflation (stagnation and inflation).
Happy Christmas!
November 29, 2004
---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*---------*
8) Taking Aim Bulletin - Tuesday, November 30, 2004
"Taking Aim"
Tune in for this special program today, November 30, on Taking
Aim, WBAI-NY 99.5 fm (5:00 p.m. EST) or tomorrow, December 1,
on Guns and Butter, KPFA 94.1 fm (2:00 p.m. PST):
OPERATION MASCARADE: Part 1: The Bombings in Madrid and
Part 2: It's All One War Now
These programs were broadcast originally March 16 and 23, 2004.
Do you want to learn more?
Check out: "The Pattern of State Terror: from 9/11 to Madrid."
This 2-CD set is available from the Center for Independent
Communication (donation-$35)
Are you interested in a special gift that will make a difference -
expandyour friend or family member's horizons? These 2-CD sets
also are available for your donation $35/each (larger donations
appreciated, too).
"Who Killed Kennedy and Why?"
"The Hidden History of Zionism and the Roadmap as a Dead
End for the Palestinian People"
"Testing the Waters: Military Rule in America"
--
Center for Independent Communication
Taking Aim with Ralph Schoenman and Mya Shone -
www.takingaim.info
Guns and Butter - www.gunsandbutter.net
Contributions to the Center for Independent Communication,
a California non-profit corporation, are tax-deductible and will
enable us to continue our radio broadcasts, expand our Internet
sites, produce workbooks, pamphlets and books and organize
events and conferences.
Make your checks payable to: Center for Independent
Communication
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