Iraq Study Sees Rebels' Attacks as Widespread

Iraq Study Sees Rebels' Attacks as Widespread
By JAMES GLANZ and THOM SHANKER
BAGHDAD, Iraq
September 29, 2004
INSURGENCY
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/29/international/middleeast/29attacks.html


BAGHDAD, Iraq, Sept. 28 - Over the past
30 days, more than 2,300 attacks by
insurgents have been directed against
civilians and military targets in Iraq, in a
pattern that sprawls over nearly every
major population center outside the Kurdish
north, according to comprehensive data
compiled by a private security company with
access to military intelligence reports and
its own network of Iraqi informants.

The sweeping geographical reach of the
attacks, from Nineveh and Salahuddin
Provinces in the northwest to Babylon
and Diyala in the center and Basra in the
south, suggests a more widespread
resistance than the isolated pockets described
by Iraqi government officials.

The type of attacks ran the gamut:
car bombs, time bombs, rocket-propelled
grenades, hand grenades, small-arms
fire, mortar attacks and land mines.

"If you look at incident data and you
put incident data on the map, it's not a few
provinces, " said Adam Collins, a security
expert and the chief intelligence official in
Iraq for Special Operations Consulting-
Security Management Group Inc., a private
security company based in Las Vegas that
compiles and analyzes the data as a regular
part of its operations in Iraq.

The number of attacks has risen and fallen
over the months. Mr. Collins said the
highest numbers were in April, when there
was major fighting in Falluja, with attacks
averaging 120 a day. The average is now
about 80 a day, he said.

But it is a measure of both the fog of war
and the fact that different analysts can look
at the same numbers and come to opposite
conclusions, that others see a nation in
which most people are perfectly safe and
elections can be held with clear legitimacy.

"I have every reason to believe that the
Iraqi people are going to be able to hold
elections," said Lt. Col. William Nichols of
the Air Force, a spokesman for the
American-led coalition forces here.

Indeed, no raw compilation of statistics
on numbers of attacks can measure what is
perhaps the most important political equation
facing Prime Minister Ayad Allawi and
the American military: how much of Iraq
is under the firm control of the interim
government. That will determine the
likelihood - and quality - of elections in January.

For example, the number of attacks is not a
n accurate measure of control in Falluja;
attacks have recently dropped there, but the
town is controlled by insurgents and is
a "no go" zone for the American military
and Iraqi security forces. It is a place where
elections could not be held without dramatic
political or military intervention.

The statistics show that there have been just
under 1,000 attacks in Baghdad during
the past month; in fact, an American military
spokesman said this week that since
April, insurgents have fired nearly 3,000
mortar rounds in Baghdad alone. But those
figures do not necessarily preclude having
elections in the Iraqi capital.

Pentagon officials and military officers like
to point to a separate list of statistics to
counter the tally of attacks, including the
number of schools and clinics opened. They
cite statistics indicating that a growing
number of Iraqi security forces are trained
and fully equipped, and they note that
applicants continue to line up at recruiting
stations despite bombings of them.

But most of all, military officers argue
that despite the rise in bloody attacks during
the past 30 days, the insurgents have
yet to win a single battle.

"We have had zero tactical losses; we have
lost no battles," said one senior American
military officer. "The insurgency has had
zero tactical victories. But that is not what
this is about.

"We are at a very critical time," the officer
added. "The only way we can lose this battle
is if the American people decide we don't
want to fight anymore."

American government officials explain
that optimistic assessments about Iraq from
President Bush and Prime Minister Allawi
can be interpreted as a declaration of a
strategic goal: that, despite the attacks,
elections will be held. The comments are
meant as a balance to the insurgents'
strategy of roadside bombings and mortar
attacks and gruesome beheadings, all
meant to declare to Iraq and the world that the
country is in chaos, and that mayhem
will prevent the country from ever reaching
democratic elections.

In a joint appearance last week in the
White House Rose Garden, Mr. Bush and Dr.
Allawi painted an optimistic portrait of
the security situation in Iraq.

Dr. Allawi said that of Iraq's 18 provinces,
"14 to 15 are completely safe." He added
that the other provinces suffer "pockets of
terrorists" who inflict damage in them and
plot attacks carried out elsewhere in the
country. In other appearances, Dr. Allawi
asserted that elections could be held in
15 of the 18 provinces.

Both Mr. Bush and Dr. Allawi insisted
that Iraq would hold free elections as scheduled
in January.

"The question is not whether there are
attacks," said one Pentagon official. "Of course
there are. But what are the proper measurements
for progress?"

Statistics collected by private security
firms, which include attacks on Iraqi civilians
and private security contractors, tend to
be more comprehensive than those collected
by the military, which focuses on attacks
against foreign troops. The period covered
by Special Operations Consulting's data
represents a typical month, with its average
of 79 attacks a day falling between the
valleys during quiet periods and the peaks
during the outbreak of insurgency in April
or the battle with Moktada al-Sadr's militia
in August for control of Najaf.

During the past 30 days those attacks
totaled 283 in Nineveh, 325 in Salahuddin in
the northwest and 332 in the desert
badlands of Anbar Province in the west. In the
center of Iraq, attacks numbered 123 in
Diyala Province, 76 in Babylon and 13 in
Wasit. There was not a single province
without an attack in the 30-day period.

Still, some Iraqis share their prime
minister's optimism when it comes to the
likelihood that elections, and a closely
related census, can be carried out successfully
amid so much violence. "We are ready
to start," said Hamid Abd Muhsen, an Iraqi
education official who is supervising parts
of the census in Baghad. "I swear to God."

James Glanz reported from Baghdad for
this article and Thom Shanker from
Washington.

Copyright 2004 The New York Times Company